Halfway through what is normally the scariest stretch of the calendar for South Florida, the Atlantic is unusually silent, and federal forecasters expect it to stay that way. In its August update, NOAA maintained its call for a below-normal season, raising the probability of below-average activity from 55 percent to 75 percent.
The updated outlook, issued Aug. 6, calls for seven to 13 named storms, two to six hurricanes and up to two major hurricanes, well short of the long-term average of 14 named storms, seven hurricanes and three majors.
The National Weather Service’s official press conference video, recorded when the initial outlook was released May 21, shows agency forecasters walking through the seasonal setup, an initial forecast of eight to 14 named storms and three to six hurricanes, issued with 70 percent confidence, and explaining the dominant force behind it: a strengthening El Niño that forecasters say could reach “super” intensity, driving wind shear that tears Atlantic storms apart before they organize.
Two Storms, Zero Hurricanes
So far the season has produced just two named systems, both in the Gulf. Arthur formed in mid-June off the Texas coast and dumped record rainfall on parts of Louisiana while spawning tornadoes along the Gulf Coast. Bertha organized south of the Florida Panhandle before making landfall in St. Bernard Parish, Louisiana. Neither reached hurricane strength.
NOAA attributes the lull to El Niño conditions that emerged in the equatorial Pacific in June and are expected to temper Atlantic activity for the remainder of the season.
Forecasters are quick to add the caveat that matters most locally: it only takes one. Hurricane Andrew devastated South Florida in 1992, itself a below-normal El Niño year, a point emphasized in every seasonal briefing. The peak of hurricane season runs from mid-August through mid-October, and emergency managers across Miami-Dade, Broward and Palm Beach counties continue to urge residents to keep supplies stocked and plans ready, quiet forecast or not.
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